2014 Big Movie Questions - Q3 Report

As Q3 comes to a close, we look back at several movie questions and make bold new predictions about the third quarter of 2014.

As 2014 has unfolded, we've learned just how precarious the Hollywood film system is. Before summer arrived, we could see serious gaps in programming, especially once May ended. That did in fact happen, exposing a decent July (Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, Hercules, and The Purge: Anarchy) and a pretty awful August, with Guardians of the Galaxy being the only thing we could recommend. The year has delivered several memorable films (Captain America: The Winter Solider and The LEGO Movie), but what lessons have we learned about 2014 so far? Several questions we pondered back in January have finally had a chance to play out, so let's get to them.

Has 2015 talk already eclipsed 2014? No, but there is some lingering concerns. 2014 has brought some amazing films like Godzilla, X-Men: Days of Future Past, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, and The LEGO Movie. Meanwhile, 2015's Batman/Superman: Dawn of Justice was postponed to 2016 and Fast 7 has finally been given a 2015 release date. But the large crowds we saw in the Spring dwindled away during one of worst summers (both critically and financially) in recent memory. In fact, the top 12 movies during the final summer weekend of 2014 drew in less than $86 million, second only to the first weekend in February. Our hopes for a strong Summer to drive the industry into a profitable Fall didn't exactly happen.

Did comic book movies continue to dominate? Yes. Of the top 5 movies of 2014, 3 of them are superhero or related titles: Guardians of the Galaxy, Cap 2, and Transformers: Age of Extinction. It's clear that Hollywood did misstep by releasing X-Men and ASM2 in the same month, but luckily Guardians was waiting in the wings to swoop in and become the highest grossing movie of the year. The overkill worry we discussed in our last report still doesn't seem to be there, even with the recent announcement of 40 superhero movies planned through 2019.

Does anyone want to win the animation battle of 2014? Not really. We knew the year would be slim pickings, but How to Train Your Dragon 2 - which underperformed from the original at $173m - represented the lone animated release of the Summer. The only two films to break the Top 20 were Mr. Peabody & Sherman, which has made a decent $111m domestically and Rio 2 at $131m. But, no one has placed higher than 11th box office-wise. To be clear, we haven't placed The LEGO Movie in here, due to its live-action elements. The only potential competition for Dragons 2 will be Marvel's Big Hero 6 in November. It's been a tough year for this genre, and we hope to see improve for 2015.

Can 20th Century Fox catch a break? Absolutely. With successes like Mr. Peabody & Sherman, X-Men, the troubled studio definitely needed more love - and they got it with hits Dawn of the Planet of the Apes and the aforementioned How to Train Your Dragon 2. Of the top 20 movies, Fox has 4 which represents more than Buena Vista/Disney and Warner Bros. (each with 3). The real loser this year is Sony, whose two films, who lost big on The Amazing Spider-man 2 but won with the surprisingly good 22 Jump Street. It's likely that Fox is out of the deep water, replaced now by Sony whose future seems very uncertain. Perhaps a late charge by a Fall blockbuster is on its way? If not, we could see rumors of them selling off their entertainment side gain some steam.

Are Teen Books-To-Movies Still a Viable Genre? Sort of. With so many bombs in 2013 like Ender's Game, The Mortal Instruments, and Beautiful Creatures, there was a fair amount of concern as to whether this year would be any different. At the end of Q3, the answer is still decidedly mixed - while the $150m Divergent did make a profit, it was clear that its #13 rating should have been better. The Fault in Our Stars opened to a strong first weekend, but has only made $125m. It's clear that the genre can bring in the money, but as we've talked about on Inside the Bucket, these films need better stories and actors.. This is why The Hunger Games: Mockingjay continues to overshadow everything in the YA market, with good reason. We still have Maze Runner to contend with in September, but 20 released in 2014 alone, the genre remains one clearly in flux.

Did moviegoers wrap their heads around Historical Fiction? Not really. Films like 300: Rise of an Empire($106m) and Noah($101m) did well enough, but Pompeii and The Legend of Hercules grossed a combined $41m. We were correct in our worry that the lack of major actors in those films would doom them, but even when A-listers made a film (Dwayne Johnson's Hercules), crowds still stayed away. This genre will need a real infusion with an Oscar nominee to stay afloat - which should happen in Winter, as it always seems to do.

Which under-the-radar film is the biggest winner of 2014? The LEGO Movie - Surpassing everyone's expectations, the part animated/live-action comedy pulled in audiences and created worldwide buzz for its song Everything is Awesome. Its box office numbers were just that, taking in an incredible $257m and was the #1 movie of the year for the first seven months until Captain America: The Winter Solider and then later Guardians of the Galaxy overtook it. Maleficent, Neighbors, and Ride Along could also be considered victories, as buzz on those was nil when 2014 started. One could also make a case for The Other Woman and the god movie Heaven is For Real, as Bible films surprised early. Yet with all of these, we still believe another will rise up, but it's unlikely LEGO will have another worthy competitor.

Which highly-publicized film has been the biggest loser? With every box office winner, there's usually several losers, and 2014 has seen its fair share of them. In terms of films that were highly publicized but failed to produce good box office numbers, one would have to add Muppets Most Wanted and Transcendence, neither which made over $55m and had big expectations coming in to their releases. Another that pains me to write about was Tom Cruise's Edge of Tomorrow, which received moderate buzz coming in but only made $99m. With two very good Science Fiction films in the past two years and the arrival of Jack Reacher, one would have thought the Cruise/Emily Blunt time travel movie would have drawn in the numbers. Sadly, it's possible that Cruise's time might have passed. He'll be back next year with Mission Impossible: 5 but at least we have this very unappreciated film to consider until then.

How did Hollywood's riskiest films perform so far? Mostly Awful. To be clear: our definition of 'risky' means films that either had stiff competition upon their opening, or ones that failed to generate buzz but were still being made. Godzilla- a film bookended between ASM2 and X-Men was just such a film, but it did very well. Compared with other risky films on our list, Godzilla ($200m) made more money than 7 other risky films like Need for Speed, I Frankenstein, Pompeii, Transcendence, and Robocop COMBINED. The clear winner in this category was Guardians of the Galaxy, becoming the #1 film of the Summer and of the year. This will allow Marvel Studios to really spread its wings with lesser-known properties, while X-Men: DOFP and the aforementioned Godzilla already have been green-lit for sequels.

With those answered, here are some other big movie questions that will need more time to play out before an answer becomes more clear:
Will horror films deliver like they did in 2013?

With such an amazing run of 2013 films including Insidious Chapter 2 and The Conjuring, we could be in the middle of a horror renaissance. Sadly, all we've gotten here is Eric Bana's Deliver Us From Evil, the less-than-satisfying Oculus, and found-footage debacle As Above So Below. However, there is hope on horizon, with The Conjuring spin-off Annabelle waiting in the wings. Beyond that, there's not much else in the pipeline so unless a newcomer suddenly arrives, it could be a thin year for the genre.

Was Guardians of The Galaxy the game changer?

Yes and No. Marvel Studios made the ultimate gamble and it paid off big time. The movie brought in a wide variety of audiences, solidifying its total and probably ensuring it will remain as the #1 grossing film of 2014. Critics wanted to see a more mature Guardians which they really didn't get, so the big question remains which was a better film: Guardians or Captain America? You decide.

Has Middle Earth lost its Mojo?

Once a powerhouse that literally redefined Hollywood, the very good Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug failed to take in $300m domestically, representing the first time for such a venerable franchise. Now, we've learned that the title for the final film has been changed to Battle of the Five Armies. Will fans come out one last time, or have moviegoers been Middle Earth-ed out?

Does Hollywood have another Billion-dollar Iron Man up its sleeve for 2014?

Yes. That award (sadly) goes to Transformers: Age of Extinction, one of the worst films of 2014 and universally panned by critics. At $555m worldwide, Guardians doesn't seem to have enough in it to pull that off, so we're forced to give that award to TF4, which made $330m in China alone. While there are clearly interested parties - the aforementioned Hobbit and Mockingjay being two - it's doubtful that we'll see a contender as they're just not enough time to make that kind of money. Next year? Now that's a different story...

Did audiences come back to Science Fiction and/or Sc-Fi?

Last year, we pondered the difference between the two, but 2013 proved that fans were tired of both. With moviegoers not embracing the very good Edge of Tomorrow or Robocop, the only winners here were Transformers and Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, both of which failed to interest critics and for good reason. The trailers for October's Interstellar look truly amazing, but will that an impact at the box office?

Will comedy bitch-slap the competition?

Hell yes. The top 20 films currently contain comedies from Neighbors, About Last Night, and Ride Along- to the top performer 22 Jump Street. We also saw the very good Sex Tape, which failed to bring in audiences, even though we at SJF loved it. There's also the impending The Interview and perhaps one more comedy to end 2014. Either way, it's been a good year for them, and with Ted 2 arriving in 2015 we couldn't be more hopeful.

Too Many Questions - Not Enough Awesome
Our interest in 2014 definitely dulled during the Summer of Meh, with several good but not great fare, and many many films failing to excite us or audiences. Prospects for successful Fall seem even thinner, with only Interstellar and Fury offering any hope. The best part of this new Hollywood is also its worst: without a good clear-cut billion dollar experience on the way, Hollywood will have to make its money one film at a time. Therefore, films we'll most likely see one surprise, several decent submissions, and the inevitable bomb. It's a tough way to live, but the only way the domestic market will persevere. However it works out, we'll be here to report the results.

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