Big Movie Questions - Q4 Report

As 2014 comes to a close, we look back at several movie questions we've posed throughout the year.

Story by Matt Cummings

The fourth quarter of the movie season is much like the holiday season: theaters crowded with customers and Hollywood licking its chops in hopes for strong returns. As 2014 has unfolded, it's clear that Hollywood's business plan was not as strong as one would have hoped, showing off a great Q1, a good Q2, and a frankly awful Q3. And while the year has delivered the great (Captain America: The Winter Solider and The LEGO Movie), the very good (The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1), and the surprising (Guardians of the Galaxy), several of our Big Movie Questions were yet to be answered. With the holidays wrapping up, we can close out 2014 by unwrapping the rest of our gifts. We've collected all the questions we've asked this year into one article so you don't have to look back to see them all. Welcome to our 2014 Big Movie Questions:

Has 2015 talk already eclipsed 2014? No, but there are some lingering concerns. In addition to the ones above, 2014 has brought some amazing films like Godzilla, X-Men: Days of Future Past, The Equalizer, and Edge of Tomorrow. Meanwhile, 2015's Batman/Superman movie was postponed to 2016 and Fast 7 has finally been given a 2015 release date, and we've received trailers for both Avengers: Age of Ultron and Star Wars: The Force Awakens. But the large crowds we saw in the Spring dwindled away during one of worst summers (both critically and financially) in recent memory. In fact, the top 12 movies during the final summer weekend of 2014 drew in less than $86 million, second only to the first weekend in February. Our hopes for a strong Summer to drive the industry into a profitable Fall didn't exactly happen. The numbers got increasingly worse as August and September inched their way to box office infamy, showing a frankly uneven set of releases including three huge blockbusters gather in May and then virtually nothing until August. Luckily, Guardians arrived and took everyone by surprise, essentially saving the market while providing the needed bridge to close out a successful year. It looks like lessons have already been learned, as 2015's releases look more orderly, with major events spaced out throughout the year. We'll have to wait to see if audiences agree.

Did comic book movies continue to dominate? Yes. Of the top 5 movies of 2014, 3 of them were superhero or related titles: Guardians of the Galaxy, Cap 2, and Transformers: Age of Extinction. It's clear that Hollywood did misstep by releasing X-Men and The Amazing Spider-man 2 in the same month, but luckily Guardians was waiting in the wings to swoop in and become the highest grossing movie of the year, although it might be eclipsed itself by Mockingjay, Part 1. For comic book movies, the overkill worry we discussed in our last report never materialized, even with the announcement of 40 superhero movies planned through 2020. After next year's relatively small amount of CB titles (3), we're hit in 2016 with 7, so that will be the real test.

Did anyone want to win the animation battle of 2014? Not really. We knew the year would be slim pickings, but How to Train Your Dragon 2 - which underperformed from the original at $177m - was only recently beat by Big Hero 6 ($187m). These were the only three to break the Top 20 (13th, 14th, and Rio 2 at 20th respectively). As a matter of comparison, 2013 sported four animated films in the top 20 grosses of the year: Frozen, Despicable Me 2, Monsters University, and The Croods. To be clear, we haven't placed The LEGO Movie in here, due to its live-action elements. With titles like Mr. Peabody and Sherman and Penguins of Madgascar frankly tanking, it was a tough year for this genre.

Did 20th Century Fox catch a break? Absolutely. With successes like Gone Girl and X-Men, the troubled studio definitely needed more love - and they got it with hits Dawn of the Planet of the Apes and How to Train Your Dragon 2. Of the top 20 movies, Fox had 5 which represented more than Buena Vista/Disney (4) and Warner Bros., Sony, and Universal (each with just 2). It's likely that Fox is out of the deep water, replaced now by Sony whose future seems very uncertain. The hack in December has thrown that studio into chaos, and with the lack of quality releases on the horizon, they will become the new question for 2015.

Are Teen Books-To-Movies Still a Viable Genre? Sort of. With so many bombs in 2013 like Ender's Game, The Mortal Instruments, and Beautiful Creatures, there was a fair amount of concern as to whether this year would be any different. While the $150m Divergent did make a profit, it was clear that its #17 rating should have been better. The Fault in Our Stars opened to a strong first weekend, but has only made $125m, while The Maze Runner made only $102m. It's clear that the genre can bring in the money, but as we've talked about on Inside the Bucket, these films need better stories and actors. This is why The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 continues to overshadow everything in the YA market. Its mammoth run continues, and is within $40m of becoming the #1 film of the year. With so few of these causing a splash, the genre remains one clearly in flux as it searches for the next big Hunger Games

Did moviegoers wrap their heads around Historical Fiction? Not really. Films like 300: Rise of an Empire ($106m) and Noah ($101m) did well enough, but Pompeii and The Legend of Hercules grossed a combined $41m. We were correct in our worry that the lack of major actors in those films would doom them, but even when A-listers made a film (Dwayne Johnson's Hercules), crowds still stayed away. Even Biblical Fiction like Noah and Exodus: Gods and Kings won't make anywhere near their budgets. We could see quality releases like American Sniper and The Imitation Game perform well at the Oscars, but it's unclear whether they will bring in the large crowds.

Which under-the-radar films were the biggest winners of 2014? It's a tie: The LEGO Movie and Guardians of the Galaxy - Surpassing everyone's expectations, the part animated/live-action comedy pulled in audiences and created worldwide buzz for its song Everything is Awesome. Its box office numbers were just that, taking in an incredible $257m and remaining the #1 movie of the year for the first seven months until Captain America: The Winter Solider and then later Guardians of the Galaxy overtook it. Both Guardians and LEGO represented risky ventures, but took home a combined $590m. Maleficent, Neighbors, and Ride Along could also be considered victories, as buzz on those was nil when 2014 started and their budgets were relatively small. One could also make a case for The Other Woman and the god movie Heaven is For Real, as Bible films surprised early. This is one of our favorite questions to ask year over year, so see this reappear in our 2015 list.

Which highly-publicized film was the biggest loser? Sadly, the list is long. With every box office winner, there's usually several losers, and 2014 has seen its fair share of them. In terms of films that were highly publicized but failed to produce good box office numbers, one would have to add Muppets Most Wanted and Transcendence, neither which made over $55m and had big expectations coming in to their releases. A early case could also be made for Exodus: Gods and Kings, which currently sits in the low 70's on BoxOfficeMojo's 100 list. Another that pains me to write about was Tom Cruise's Edge of Tomorrow, which received moderate buzz coming in but only made $100m. With two very good Science Fiction films in the past two years and the arrival of Jack Reacher, one would have thought the Cruise/Emily Blunt time travel movie would have drawn in the numbers. He'll be back in 2015 with Mission Impossible: 5 but at least we have this very unappreciated film to consider until then.

How did Hollywood's riskiest films perform? Mostly Awful. To be clear: our definition of 'risky' means films that either had stiff competition upon their opening, or ones that failed to generate buzz but were still being made. Godzilla - a film bookended in a too-busy May was just such a film, but it did very well. Compared with other risky films on our list, Godzilla ($200m) made more money than 7 other risky films like Need for Speed, I Frankenstein, Pompeii, Transcendence, and Robocop COMBINED. The clear winner in this category was Guardians of the Galaxy, becoming the #1 film of the Summer. This will allow Marvel Studios to really spread its wings with lesser-known properties, while X-Men: DOFP and the aforementioned Godzilla already have been green-lit for sequels.

Did horror films deliver like they did in 2013? No. With such an amazing run of 2013 films including Insidious Chapter 2 and The Conjuring, we thought we were in the middle of a horror renaissance. Unfortunately, 2014 didn't deliver anything nearly as satisfying, with Annabelle ($84m) at #34 which delivered huge numbers but was a critical flop. Eric Bana's Deliver Us From Evil, found-footage debacle As Above So Below, Oculus, and Paranormal Activity 4: The Marked Ones ranked as some of the worst performing films of the year. The common thread for their failures lie in flimsy stories and poor acting, with each trying to excel as the low-budget leader. The lesson to be learned: quality movies like Sinister happen because of good scripts and top talent. I hope 2015 will prove me right with better releases.

Will Guardians of The Galaxy be the game changer? Sure, but... Marvel Studios made the ultimate gamble and it paid off big time. The movie brought in a wide variety of audiences, solidifying its total and proving that we'll watch anything Marvel throws onto the big (and small) screen. Critics wanted to see a more mature Guardians which they really didn't get, as Ronin the Accuser was apparently a last-minute add as the villain and it showed. In my opinion, Captain America was a more complete movie, in terms of the central baddie; also, the stakes were much higher, instead of Guardians looking more like Thor: The Dark World. Granted, we'll be seeing more of Rocket Raccoon in our future, and that's not a bad thing; but the sequel should and needs to focus on Thanos. With Avengers: Age of Ultron arriving next year, perhaps we'll get a clearer picture of where he will land.

Has Middle Earth lost its Mojo? Perhaps. Once a powerhouse that literally redefined Hollywood, the very good Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug failed to take in $300m domestically, representing the first time for the venerable franchise. While The Battle of the Five Armies is performing better than Smaug at this time, there's very little buzz surrounding the conclusion of this trilogy. Based on critical reviews (a combined Metacritic score of 59) it's possible that we're Middle Earth-ed out, having been replaced by the comic book genre. The problem here seems to lie in too many big CGI moments where too many characters introduced in The Hobbit battle too many Orcs. It's just been a menagerie of images without a lot of real character growth.

Did Hollywood have another Billion-dollar Iron Man up its sleeve for 2014? Yes. That award (sadly) goes to Transformers: Age of Extinction, one of the worst films of 2014 and universally panned by critics. Its final total: $1.0874b, eclipsing Guardians which made $772m. However, this could be the last year for $1b films as a measure of success, as some reports claim Star Wars: The Force Awakens could make $3 BILLION DOLLARS worldwide. Just saying that number makes us woosy.

Did audiences come back to Science Fiction and/or Sc-Fi? No.Last year, we pondered the difference between the two, but 2013 proved that fans were tired of both. With moviegoers not embracing the very good Edge of Tomorrow or Robocop, the only cash winners here were Transformers and Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, both of which failed to interest critics and for good reason. Even the visually-arresting Interstellar barely made its money back domestically, proving that the genre certainly needs an infusion of Star Wars to keep alive.

Which comedy bitch-slapped the others? From a financial standpoint, the top 20 films contain comedies from Neighbors, and Ride Along, with the top prize awarded to 22 Jump Street. While we really enjoyed Sex Tape, audiences killed that idea pretty early. With all the scandal at Sony Pictures resulting in so much press for The Interview, don't be surprised if that one makes a ton just based on curiosity. Either way, it's been a good year for comedies, and with Ted 2 arriving in 2015 we couldn't be more hopeful.

Too Many Questions - Not Enough Awesome

Our interest in 2014 definitely dulled as we entered the Holiday season, with several good but not great fare, and many many films failing to excite us or audiences. And yet Hollywood will make more money than 2013, something that's best left to those who can fudge the numbers enough to make anything seem profitable. There won't be any need for this kind of creative bookkeeping in 2015, with the possibility of several projects ultimately arriving at $1b worldwide. The question is, will relatively small projects and independent films find their way into the national conscience while we camp out at our favorite megaplex to see Avengers: Age of Ultron, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Furious 7? Sounds like our 2015 Big Questions story is right around the corner.

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