2014 Box Office Wrap Up: Highs and Too Many Lows

We reflect at some of the biggest box office developments from 2014 and theorize how they might affect 2015.

Story by Matt Cummings

With all the movie highs (Captain America: The Winter Solider, Guardians of the Galaxy, and Mockingjay, Part 1), there were a lot of lows to report, beginning with the bottom line: numbers. According to our friends at BoxOficeMojo.com, the 2014 domestic box office was down 5.3% from 2013, taking in $10.347 billion. It's also the lowest number for the past 5 years, with 2011 being the only competitor at $10.174 billion. But the misery doesn't end there. July totaled a paltry $966 million, which is down 30 percent from last July and marked the first time since 2002 in which a July fell short of selling $1 billion in tickets. But 2014 also failed to boast a $400m film, something that hasn't happened since 2011.

Numbers like these can get confusing for films released in November, with their totals seemingly divided between 2 years. And while films like Mockingjay or The Battle of the Five Armies will see its 2015 hauls adjusted back into 2014, those same numbers will not affect 2014's overall totals. With these facts in mind, it's safe to say that, based on a quick comparison of that same 5 year time frame, Hollywood couldn't be happier that 2014 is over.

We would agree. Take a look at the past five years of the top five domestic grossers and see if you notice any trends: 2014
1 Guardians of the Galaxy $332,862,030
2 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1 $313,229,000
3 Captain America: The Winter Soldier $259,766,572
4 The LEGO Movie $257,760,692
5 Transformers: Age of Extinction $245,439,076

2013
1 The Hunger Games: Catching Fire $424,668,047
2 Iron Man 3 $409,013,994
3 Frozen $400,738,009
4 Despicable Me 2 $368,061,265
5 Man of Steel $291,045,518

2012
1 Marvel's The Avengers $623,357,910
2 The Dark Knight Rises $448,139,099
3 The Hunger Games $408,010,692
4 Skyfall $304,360,277
5 The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey $303,003,568

2011
1 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 $381,011,219
2 Transformers: Dark of the Moon $352,390,543
3 The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 $281,287,133
4 The Hangover Part II $254,464,305
5 Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides $241,071,802

2010
1 Toy Story 3 $415,004,880
2 Alice in Wonderland (2010) $334,191,110
3 Iron Man 2 $312,433,331
4 The Twilight Saga: Eclipse $300,531,751
5 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 $295,983,305

Looking deeper, we notice that over that same period of time, 2014 represented the lowest in terms of top five grossers. In fact it wasn't even close, with 2014 off $100 million or more from previous years. Theater screens hosting first-run films were as high as ever, so what do these numbers say about the overall health of the US film market?

It's clear from our perspective that most theaters are typically quiet places during the week, that people in general wait to see movies on the weekends and will only come during the week if they've heard good comments from that same previous weekend. That means a new film has just three days to make an impression before audiences get hyped for the next new thing during the following week. If that release doesn't impress, you can plan on the word 'bomb' being used on Twitter. Flops happen all the time, but it seemed like 2014 had a lot of them, including Transcendence, Pompeii, Exodus: Gods and Kings, Expendables 3, I Frankenstein, Sabotage, and Men Women and Children). When this number of films drop the ball, it will create pressure on others to pick up the slack. After the initial hype of Guardians, mid-August to late- September was just plain ugly for theaters, looking more like moseleums than places of business.

But this brings up a secondary issue that Hollywood can't fix: audiences are still recovering from the 2007 economic meltdown. Less dollars means fewer choices, and with lesser movies coming out, it becomes clear that some are opting for video rather than catching choices in their local theater.

As with every thing someone can't control, Hollywood did shoot itself in the foot over an incredibly bad decision: scheduling three top summer films in one month, two right behind the other. This happened for The Amazing Spider-man 2, Godzilla, and X-Men: Days of Future Past, with the latter faring better only because it was released at the end of May with no competition the week after. This sort of decision-making probably took $50-100 million out of the box office long term because audiences were forced to make choices between three big films, rather than giving each time to make its money and spreading them out over the months. This can also help smaller films because audiences have time to take a chance on them before the big releases force their attention elsewhere.

Lessons Learned?

Hollywood seems to have learned its lesson by favoring balance over competition with its 2015 lineup. But the new year threatens to outdo any previous yearly achievements, with the most anticipated slate of films in recent memory. In fact, Star Wars: The Force Awakens and The Avengers: Age of Ultron are projected to compete for the venerable top film of all time, with each looking to take down 2009's Avatar at $760 million. Does this mean that Hollywood is suddenly the recovered patient and on the road to good health?

As we've always said, a healthy box office means lots of films enjoying deep runs and big hauls, not just a few lucky ones. Sure there will always be a top dog, but without a $400m film in the past two years (2012 had three), it's important to re-establish that trend without forcing moviegoers to make tough choices with their hard-earned dollars. No matter how it turns out, we'll be here to break down what looks like to an epic year for films.

Discuss this story with fellow SJF fans on Facebook. On Twitter, follow us at @SandwichJohnFilms, and follow author Matt Cummings at @mfc90125.