2014 Big Movie Questions - Q2 Report

As Q2 comes to a close, we look back at some movie questions and make bold new predictions about the second half of 2014.

As we began 2014, the distinct feeling among SJF writers was that 2015 was about to seriously dominate any discussion about the coming year. But 2014 has stood its ground, delivering memorable films and enticing moviegoers to come along. You'll have to wait for our upcoming Quarter 2 financial report to see the specifics, but for now we've tackled several questions we pondered back in Januaryand you'll surprised by some of our answers. Enjoy.

• Has 2015 talk already eclipsed 2014?No - 2014 has brought some amazing films like Godzilla, X-Men: Days of Future Past, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, and The LEGO Movie. Meanwhile,2015's Batman/Superman movie was postponed to 2016 and Fast 7 has been shrouded in mystery since Paul Walker's death. We've seen large crowds at the theaters (not just for our screenings) and the genuine buzz has suggested that Hollywood has done all it can to bring those audiences quality films. A strong Summer will go a long way to cementing that belief.
• Did comic book movies continue to dominate? Yes - Of the top 5 movies of 2014, 4 of them are superhero or related titles: Cap 2, Amazing Spider-man 2, X-Men: DOFP, and Godzilla. It's clear that moviegoers love their superheroes, but with the lack of another one until August's Guardians of the Galaxy, did Hollywood misstep by releasing X-Men and ASM2 in the same month? The overkill worry we discussed in our last report doesn't seem to be there, even though the perception is that ASM2 was a financial failure. While a case could be made for either side, the fact that it's stil lthe #3 movie of 2014 should say enough. And with Guardians enjoying terrific word of mouth, we think Hollywood is poised to rake in the superhero dollars once more.
• Does anyone want to win the animation battle of 2014? While Pixar has shelved The Good Dinosaur, there wasn't much else that seemed to pique interest. But since then we've had some nice surprises, including Mr. Peabody & Sherman, which has made an impressive $110m domestically and Rio 2 at $125m. But, no one has placed higher than 11th box office-wise. To be clear, we haven't placed The LEGO Movie in here, due to its live-action elements. But with How to Train Your Dragon 2already here and Marvel's Big Hero 6 in November, we're convinced that someone will (eventually) step up to claim the top animated film before too long.
• Can 20th Century Fox catch a break? Absolutely - They've already experienced good success with Mr. Peabody & Sherman, and X-Men has done nothing less than blow expectations out of the water. With Dawn of the Planet of the Apes and the aforementioned How to Train Your Dragon 2, we think the Fox execs can breathe a sigh of relief...for now.
• Are Teen Books-To-Movies Still a Viable Genre? We'll see - With so many bombs in 2013 like Ender's Game, The Mortal Instruments, and Beautiful Creatures, there was a fair amount of concern as to whether this year would be any different. The answer has been decidedly mixed - while the $85m Divergent did make a profit, it was clear that its #6 rating should have been better. The Fault in Our Stars opened to a strong first weekend, but it's clear that any answer here will need to wait until Q4. Most of the big names - including The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - have yet to be released. But with more than 20 planned 2014 alone, we should have a very clear picture by year's end whether this genre has legs or not.
• Did moviegoers wrap their heads around Historical Fiction? Not really - Films like 300: Rise of an Empire($106m) and Noah ($101m)did well enough , but Pompeii and The Legend ofHercules grossed a combined $41m. We were correct in our worry that the lack of major actors in those films would doom them, and that continues to a certan degree with the other Hercules film starring Dwayne Johnson and due July 25th. This genre is in real trouble, unless an under-the-radar Oscar winner arrives - as it usually does - during the Winter.
• Which under-the-radar film is the biggest winner of 2014? The LEGO Movie - Surpassing everyone's expectations, the part animated/live-action comedy pulled in audiences and created worldwide buzz for its song Everything is AwesomeIts box office numbers were just that, taking in an incredible $255.859m and was the #1 movie of the year until very recent, when Captain America: The Winter Solider eeked out a late-run victory. Maleficent, Neighbors, and Ride Along could also be considered victories, as buzz on those was nil when 2014 started. One could also make a case for The Other Woman and the god movie Heaven is For Real. We're still set on yet another winner to close in and believe the comedy genre is likely to produce another contender.
• Which highly-publicized film has been the biggest loser? With every box office winner, there's usually several losers, and 2014 has seen its fair share of them. In terms of films that were highly publicized but failed to produce good box office numbers, one would have to add Muppets Most Wanted and Transcendence, neither which made over $55m and had big expectations coming in to their releases.
• How did Hollywood's riskiest films perform so far? Mostly Awful. To be clear: our definition of 'risky' means films that either had stiff competition upon their opening, or ones that failed to generate buzz but were still being made. Godzilla - a film bookended between ASM2 and X-Men was just such a film, but it did very well. Compared with other risky films on our list, it made more money than The Legend of Hercules, Need for Speed, I, Frankenstein, Pompeii, Nymphomaniac: Volume 1, and Robocop COMBINED ($185m compared to $164.04m).Transcendence would have put it $2m over, otherwise you could have added it to this list.Hollywood experiences its share of bombs each year, but to see that many films do so poorly against another risky film is eye-opening. But the news isn't' all that bad: the remaining 3 films on our list include Guardians of the Galaxy, X-Men: DOFP, and the aforementioned Godzilla, two of which enjoy top 5 status at the box office. It's clear that risky films enjoy either a feast or famine at the box office, and 2014 has seen it share of both.

With those answered, here are some other big movie questions that will need more time to play out before an answer becomes more clear:

Will horror films deliver like they did in 2013?

With such an amazing run of 2013 films including Insidious Chapter 2 and The Conjuring, we could be in the middle of a horror renaissance. There's a few interesting ones coming out, including Eric Bana's Deliver Us From Evil. But, there's not much else in the pipeline so, unless a newcomer suddenly arrives, it could be a thin year for the genre.

Will Guardians of The Galaxy be the game changer?

With Internet buzz approaching tilt, expectations might be too much at this point. Critics want to see a more mature Guardians so they can feel better about watching superhero films, but fans just want satisfying films. Can there be a balance? Who cares about critics anyhow...wait a second...

Has Middle Earth lost its Mojo?

Once a powerhouse that literally redefined Hollywood, the very good Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug failed to take in $300m domestically, representing the first time for such a venerable franchise. Now, we've learned that the title for the final film has been changed to Battle of the Five Armies. Will fans come out one last time, or have moviegoers been Middle Earth-ed out?

Does Hollywood have another Billion-dollar Iron Man up its sleeve for 2014?

Is there anyone who can match the stunning - some say undeserving - box office that the final Tony Stark film took in? For wherever the truth lies, there doesn't seem to be a film in 2014 which can match Iron Man 3 in terms of box office. How will that play out as we finish the year? While there are clearly interested parties - The aforementioned Hobbit being one - it's doubtful that we'll see a contender. Next year? Now that's a different story...

Will audiences come back to Science Fiction and/or Sc-Fi?

Last year, we pondered the difference between the two, but 2013 proved that fans were tired of both. With moviegoers not embracing the very good Edge of Tomorrow and Jupiter Ascending postponed to 2015, can films like Interstellar truly make an impact? Is anyone interested in Transformers enough to make a difference? Can Dawn of the Planet of The Apes rise up?

Which comedy will bitch-slap the others?

With several very good ones already out - including Neighbors, About Last Night, and Ride Along - we're sure another (or two) are primed to take the top spot. Will it be 22 Jump Street, which ranked among the highest with test audiences? Or is there something else we're all missing?

Too Many Questions - Not Enough Awesome
We're still excited for 2014, even though there doesn't seem to be too many top dogs vying for contention. That's the beauty of letting this play out: someone inevitably does. But we also still believe that without a clear-cut billion dollar experience on the way, Hollywood will have to make its money one film at a time. This is the way Hollywood used to make its cash, and with some hard work and a bit of luck we'll be seeing good numbers through December. However it works out, we'll be here to report the results.

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